据《雅加达邮报》10月15日报道，使全国各地区的的减排能力合理化应该是巴黎气候峰会后政府的优先事项，科学家预测，印尼到2030年减排29％的目标是无法实现的。Rationalizing the emission reduction capabilities of each region in the country should be a government priority after the Parisclimate summit as scientists predict that the country’s 29 percent emission reduction target by 2030 is unattainable.

Based on a study by Conservation International Indonesia in partnership with USAID, Indonesia was predicted to fail in meeting its ambitious target, said University of Indonesia (UI) environmental researcher Mahawan Karuniasa.“There’s no way for us to meet the 29 percent target because we still have to take into account the rationality of [local] context.

From Papua to Java, typologies are very different in the context of development,” he said on Tuesday. According to the study, conducted in Mandailing Natal and Tapanuli Selatan regencies inNorth Sumatrain 2014, both regencies were found to have limited capacities in reducing carbon emissions. “We only have the capability to reduce land-based carbon emissions by 12 to 13 percent.

That’s the figure after intervention, meaning that people cannot be poor, the economy has to grow and education has to improve,” Mahawan said. Seeing how other regions might also have limited capabilities in reducing their emissions, things are looking dire forIndonesia’s commitment.

“Looking at this [study], it is quite challenging to meet the 29 percent target, especially taking into account the need to change how we develop our national development plan, state budget, mid-term regional development plan and regional budget plan,” said Mahawan. Therefore, it is crucial for the government to measure each region’s’ capabilities, according to him.

“We could work together with the association of climate change experts. We need to look at the situation in the subnational context. We have just submitted [Indonesia’s Draft Climate Plan] and we will ratify it in 2020. Prior to that, we have time to do carry out further studies at the subnational level so that we can assess our true capabilities [in reducing carbon emissions],” Mahawan said. He said that one region could have vastly different capabilities from another owing to the country’s diverse geography and ecosystem.

“It is highly likely that Papua andKalimantanhave greater capacities [in reducing emissions] because they have smaller populations. But take a look atSumatra. The land-cultivation permits for plantation area below 1,000 hectares are issued by the regional governments, but they don’t have the maps and thus there are no clear land boundaries. So there are lots of challenges in this region,” said Mahawan.

By understanding each region’s characteristics and capabilities, the government would be able to measure the range of the country’s true capacity and could use that as a bargaining chip when it requested international assistance. “So when we have a range, we don’t limit ourselves to a rigid target of 29 percent,” Mahawan said. “If it turns out that we can’t reach the target, we have to have reasons. Let’s say we’re only able to reduce 26 percent, we could negotiate and ask for international support to reduce an additional 3 percent.

”Wahjudi Wardojo, a senior advisor on conservation policy at The Nature Conservancy, also pointed out the importance of having detailed calculations on the country’s plan to achieve its target,

“How much will we have to gain and loose for sustainable development? Actually, we can measure that since we already have the tools and technology,” he said on Tuesday. “The next stage will be budget planning because policies [to reduce emissions] are not often followed by fiscal and tax policies.” -